Here are the winners of the Predict-ETH Round 3 Data Challenge
The winning approaches are promising monetize via trading or selling data feeds
Summary
Predict-ETH Round 3 just completed. First, second and third place go to Andrey Bessalov ($2500), Tanut Choksatchawathi ($1500), and M.N. ($1000) respectively. The winning predictions are extremely promising towards monetization. Congratulations to all!
About Predict-ETH Competition
Predict-ETH is a challenge to predict the price of ETH, and win prize $. It uses ocean.py library
There’s great value in being able to predict ETH well. It helps to make $ in buying / selling ETH, DeFi trading, yield farming or DeFi protocol development. And, you can sell your predictions as a datafeed on Ocean Market, for others to do the same.
Yet, predicting ETH accurately is not so easy.
So the challenge is: how accurately can you predict ETH?
Ocean Protocol hosts regular Predict-ETH competitions to help onboard people to pursue this challenging problem, and potentially make $ while at it.
Predict-ETH Round 3 Setup
Predict-ETH Round 3 kicked off on Jan 16, 2023. The Round 3 README guided contestants in making submissions. Desights was used to host the competition in a decentralized fashion.
We held regular workshops with the community, for anyone working on the predict-ETH challenge who wanted facetime with Ocean core team.
The submission deadline was Sun Feb 19, 2023 at 23:59 UTC. Competitors had to make predictions for ETH price 1h later, 2h later, …, 12h later.
Predict-ETH Round 3 Evaluation
With round 3, the competition continued to heat up, with 24 entries. This was 3x more many entries than round 2!
A panel of evaluators from Ocean independently reviewed all the submissions.
The criteria were:
- 50% — lowest prediction error
- 25% — presentation of approach, and feedback
- 25% — proper flow was used to submit. This includes: the predictions were stored to arweave, and a datatoken was shared to judges.
Predict-ETH Round 3 Winners
We’re proud to announce winners for Predict-ETH Round 3:
First place ($2,500) goes to Andrey Bessalov.
Second place ($1,500) goes to Tanut Choksatchawathi.
Third place ($1,000) goes to M.N.
Details of Winning Result
The image below plots the predicted ETH value (orange) versus time, and true CEX value (blue) versus time, for the winning result by Andrey Bessalov. It had 24% lower error (relative) compared to the next-best predictions. And qualitatively, it looks great!
More importantly, consistently predicting at this accuracy can lead to serious $ earnings. For example, by directly trading ETH. Or, to “sell tools to gold miners” by using Ocean Market to sell ETH-predictions. Great stuff Andrey!
Round 3 Statistics: NMSE plot
The image below is a 1d scatterplot, where the y-axis is the normalized mean-squared error (NMSE) of the submissions. It’s log-scaled. (One competitor did not submit, so we assigned nmse of 1.0, not shown.)
Round 3 Statistics: Table of NMSEs, Ranks, etc
The following table shows the NMSE, NMSE rank, overall rank and more by competitor. For privacy reasons, we don’t show individual names. As a competitor, you can compare against your profile id, datatoken address, or other.
Conclusion
Crypto price prediction can be an interesting and fun task, and better yet, it can be monetized immediately! Congratulations to all the winners and kudos to all participants for their entries.
About Ocean Protocol
Ocean Protocol is a decentralized data exchange platform spearheading the movement to unlock a New Data Economy, break down data silos, and open access to quality data. Ocean’s intuitive marketplace technology allows data to be published, discovered, and consumed in a secure, privacy-preserving manner. By giving power back to data owners, Ocean resolves the tradeoff between using private data and the risks of exposing it.
About Predict-ETH
Ocean Protocol’s Predict-ETH data challenge series empowers data scientists with Ocean tech. By using Ocean.py technology, data scientists can monetize their IP while preserving its privacy.
